December 14, 2024

Pollock Prediction: Bills facing their second-biggest test of the season versus Lions

By CHUCK POLLOCK, Wellsville Sun Senior Sports Columnist

When the NFL released its 2024 schedule back in May, two dates jumped off the page for the Bills … the hardest games on Buffalo’s slate.

One was Nov. 17 at Highmark Stadium against the Chiefs, a team the Bills have dominated in the regular season — 5-1 since 2017, coach Sean McDermott’s first year, four of those wins in Kansas City. And last month, they did it with a 30-21 decision in Orchard Park.

But, alas, the Chiefs (12-1) have won all three playoff games in McDermott’s tenure, hence their premier spot on Buffalo’s slate.

The other key date on the Bills schedule was Dec. 15, a visit to Detroit, 12-1, arguably the NFC’s best team.

And so it will be on Sunday afternoon at Ford Field (4:25, CBS-TV, Bills Radio Network) as the Lions have a golden opportunity to prevent Buffalo from overtaking the Chiefs for the AFC’s top seed and the bye that goes with it.

The Bills have the head-to-head win over KC, but that only becomes a factor if the teams are tied. And Buffalo, which has already lost to Baltimore and Houston, would have three defeats if it falls to the Lions. That means the Chiefs would have to lose twice in its last four games — at Browns, home versus Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos — to abdicate the conference’s top spot.

That’s certainly not impossible, but if the Bills lose in Detroit, they would have to sweep the last three against 3-10 division teams; home-and-home with New England and home versus the Jets.

The Lions have been on fire under coach Dan Campbell all season — Detroit’s lone loss was a 26-20 decision to the Buccaneers at Ford Field — and their average margin of victory is 33-17.

But Campbell’s crew, bidding for the NFC’s top seed, can’t afford a misstep as they’re being pursued by North division rival Minnesota (11-2).

BUFFALO is coming off a crushing 44-42 loss to the Rams in L.A. last Sunday in which neither team forced a takeaway nor surrendered a sack. But, behind quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Rams mustered 457 offensive yards, 320 through the air.

And that couldn’t offset an extraordinary performance by Bills’ QB Josh Allen who produced six touchdowns; three passing, three rushing.

That was true because the defense was awful, the special teams surrendered a blocked-punt TD and had several substitution errors and there was the obligatory clock management gaffe in the final minute.

Of those issues, McDermott said, “You don’t want them to come up but you have things come up from time to time … you’ve got to fix them, you’ve got to have them worked out.

“That’s what we try to do in the days after (a tough loss) and you learn from it and you get better because of it. That’s the journey of the season and you have to deal with the adversity.”

Of his defense’s struggle with opponents’ running games, he added, “A higher level of detail on our end (is needed)… our execution and controlling the pieces we can control … the techniques and the rhythm.”

To be sure, Buffalo’s rushing ‘D’ will be tested by the Lions.

Detroit’s 1-2 running back punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has given opponents fits all season. Gibbs, the speed back, has rushed for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs on the ground and two more receiving. Montgomery, the power back, has rushed for a dozen scores.

But the Lions real challenge is balance. Quarterback Jeff Goff has thrown 25 touchdown passes in 13 games, nine to wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and five to tight end Sam LaPorta since his return from injury.

CLEARLY, Buffalo’s recent struggles on the line of scrimmage have left McDermott concerned.

“We’ve got to get back to good fundamental football,” he said. “That’s really where it starts, and playing with a certain attitude. “It’s a mentality. “If you want to play good defense, that’s where it starts. If you want to be able to run the ball on offense, be able to stop the run … it’s got to be more consistent.”

McDermott then reverted to his philosophy.

“Trust the routine and trust the process is certainly one approach,” he said. “It’s certainly what I subscribe to. But within that is you better bring your heart, you better bring your guts. You better put it on the line. You better give max effort.

“That’s never been a two separate thought process. The process is the process. It’s the approach and the preparation, and the mindset has always been the mindset that this is football. You’ve got to bring it every day, every week. And our players know that. It’s got to be a mentality for us, first and foremost, that we carry through the rest of the season.”

The Bills had a tough week of preparation as Wednesday’s walk-through was followed by three-feet of snow Thursday at Highmark Stadium, precluding players from getting to Orchard Park with practice being conducted virtually.

Friday’s injury report wasn’t kind to the Bills. Rasul Douglas, Buffalo’s best cornerback, is out with a knee injury. Both starting safeties, Taylor Rapp (neck/shoulder) and Damar Hamlin (back/ribs) are questionable as are tight ends Dalton Kincaid (knee) and Quintin Morris (shoulder/groin). Also questionable are offensive tackle Tyler Grable (groin), defensive ends Dawuane Smoot (wrist) and Casey Toohill (ribs) and linebacker Baylon Spector (calf).

Oddsmakers have established Detroit as a 2½-point favorite after the line opened at Lions -3.

POLLOCK’S PICK: Lions 29, Bills 24

(Chuck Pollock, a Wellsville Sun and Olean Star senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@wnynet.net.)

More on the Bills and Bonnies from Chuck:

• The media missed the point with questions of McDermott

• We did not expect the Rams-Bills results as Josh Allen sets major records

• Will the Bills be motivated against the Rams?

• Schmidt doesn’t want the Bonnies to get caught up in 12-1 talk

• A look at the rise under Sean McDermott

• The snow and the Buffalo Bills were too much for the 49ers

• St. Bonaventure Bonnies put unbeaten hoops record on the line in ESPN Tournament

• Pollock Prediction on San Fran at Buffalo Sunday night game